{"id":114863,"date":"2018-03-11T10:43:02","date_gmt":"2018-03-11T10:43:02","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2018-03-11T10:43:02","modified_gmt":"2018-03-11T10:43:02","slug":"reconstruccion-climatica-historica-y-analisis-evolutivo-de-la-vulnerabilidad-y-adaptacion-a-las-sequa%c2%adas-e-inundaciones-en-la-cuenca-del-segura-espana-y-en-la-cuenca-del-ra%c2%ado-mendoza-arge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/geografia\/reconstruccion-climatica-historica-y-analisis-evolutivo-de-la-vulnerabilidad-y-adaptacion-a-las-sequa%c2%adas-e-inundaciones-en-la-cuenca-del-segura-espana-y-en-la-cuenca-del-ra%c2%ado-mendoza-arge\/","title":{"rendered":"Reconstrucci\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica hist\u00f3rica y an\u00e1lisis evolutivo de la vulnerabilidad y adaptaci\u00f3n a las sequ\u00edas e inundaciones en la cuenca del segura (espa\u00f1a) y en la cuenca del r\u00edo mendoza (argentina)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tesis doctoral de Salvador Gil Guirado <\/strong><\/h2>\n

En un escenario ambiental y clim\u00e1tico cambiante (jones, osborn, & briffa, 2001; bradley & jones, 1992; bradley, briffa, cole, hughes, & osborn, 2003) donde las afecciones de los eventos meteorol\u00f3gicos extremos parecen estar aumentando tanto por una mayor exposici\u00f3n, como por una mayor recurrencia de los mismos (easterling et al, 2000; charney, 2006; barredo, 2009; schiermeier, 2011; grinsted, moore, & jevrejeva, 2012), resulta de enorme importancia determinar a escala regional y local en qu\u00e9 medida el contexto actual se enmarca dentro de la "normalidad" o si por el contrario estamos asistiendo a un nuevo escenario ante el que las sociedades y ecosistemas no han podido adaptarse por la rapidez y magnitud del mismo. Sin embargo la limitada extensi\u00f3n de los registros clim\u00e1ticos instrumentales impide valorar esta cuesti\u00f3n de forma adecuada. ante este inconveniente, es necesario recurrir a las reconstrucciones por medio de t\u00e9cnicas paleoclim\u00e1ticas, ocupadas en inferir el signo y magnitud de los elementos del clima a trav\u00e9s de datos clim\u00e1ticos o proxy data. En esta tesis, se usan para este fin t\u00e9cnicas hist\u00f3ricas, basadas en la potencialidad que la informaci\u00f3n documental posee para reconstruir el clima. Por otro lado, estas t\u00e9cnicas permiten reconocer c\u00f3mo el clima era percibido y afectaba a las sociedades, posibilitando analizar la vulnerabilidad de las sociedades, la cual depende tanto de un detonante ambiental, como especialmente de la preparaci\u00f3n deficiente de las sociedades que por diversos motivos no se adaptan correctamente al entorno en que se desarrollan (berkes y folke, 1998; adger, 2006). En este sentido, los distintos territorios, unidos por lazos culturales, presentan analog\u00edas en la respuesta a los condicionantes del medio, especialmente en zonas de clima an\u00e1logo. por todos estos motivos se eligen la cuenca del segura en espa\u00f1a y la cuenca del r\u00edo mendoza en argentina, ambos espacios con una pasado hist\u00f3rico com\u00fan bajo el dominio de la corona espa\u00f1ola y con clima \u00e1rido y semi\u00e1rido, para realizar una reconstrucci\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica y an\u00e1lisis de la vulnerabilidad desde al a\u00f1o 1600 hasta el 2010, estableciendo una metodolog\u00eda com\u00fan aplicable en una parte importante de los m\u00e1s de 20 millones de km2 que suma esta regi\u00f3n hist\u00f3rica, pasando por la pen\u00ednsula ib\u00e9rica y la mayor parte del macrocontinente americano. la reconstrucci\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica ha supuesto un estudio multiproxy hist\u00f3rico por el hecho de usar diversos m\u00e9todos, entre los que destacan el uso de las rogativas pro-pluvia y pro-serenitate, los precios de los granos (trigo, cebada y ma\u00edz), las series de inundaciones, un nuevo m\u00e9todo (mpco) basado en la cantidad de papel que ocupan ciertas cuestiones relacionadas con el clima y, fundamentalmente, el an\u00e1lisis de contenido, que se erige como el m\u00e9todo m\u00e1s apropiado para reconstruir el clima bajo un m\u00e9todo com\u00fan en las territorios del antiguo imperio espa\u00f1ol. Al mismo tiempo se han creado dos \u00edndices de adversidad clim\u00e1tica, uno en la cuenca del segura y otro en la del r\u00edo mendoza, que informan de periodos especialmente cr\u00edticos para la sociedad por un detonante ambiental. Paralelamente, se ha creado una nueva t\u00e9cnica (iegvges) que permite analizar y valorar la vulnerabilidad, adaptaci\u00f3n y contexto sociopol\u00edtico de las inundaciones y sequ\u00edas en las \u00e1reas de estudio y que es susceptible de aplicarse con independencia de su ubicaci\u00f3n, especialmente si las fuentes en las que se basa son period\u00edsticas. todo esto ha permitido corroborar, tanto en la cuenca del segura como en la del r\u00edo mendoza, que la anomal\u00eda clim\u00e1tica iniciada en la segunda mitad del siglo pasado no tiene precedentes al menos desde 1600, por cuanto la persistencia de a\u00f1os c\u00e1lidos y muy c\u00e1lidos es mucho mayor en la actualidad. En cambio las precipitaciones presentan un comportamiento diferencial, puesto que mientras que aumentan sensiblemente en mendoza propiciando una mayor recurrencia de fen\u00f3menos tormentosos intensos, se reducen en la cuenca del segura. Esto deja un dif\u00edcil escenario para el abastecimiento \u00f3ptimo de recursos h\u00eddricos y para la defensa ante inundaciones en espacios que ya de por si soportan un fuerte estr\u00e9s en este sentido. la situaci\u00f3n es mucho m\u00e1s preocupante, al observar que en los \u00faltimos cuatro siglos la vulnerabilidad general no ha descendido como los medios disponibles permiten y ambos espacios presenta problemas recurrentes que no se han solucionado. En el caso mendocino la mala calidad de las infraestructuras de riego y defensa siguen siendo un factor de riesgo m\u00e1s de cuatrocientos a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s, al tiempo que se produce una colonizaci\u00f3n urbana de espacios altamente expuestos. En murcia en cambio, el crecimiento desaforado de la superficie construida sin una correcta planificaci\u00f3n genera nuevos espacios en riesgo, al tiempo que se asiste a una progresiva politizaci\u00f3n de los problemas de falta de agua, que a trav\u00e9s del control pol\u00edtico de los medios de comunicaci\u00f3n, repercute en un aumento de la vulnerabilidad pol\u00edtica, de los conflictos sociales y de las tensiones territoriales. in a changing climate and environmental scenario (jones, osborn & briffa, 2001; bradley & jones, 1992; bradley, briffa, cole, hughes & osborn, 2003 ), where the impact of extreme weather conditions seem to be increasing because of a greater exposure to as well as because of a greater recurrence of extreme weather conditions (easterling et al, 2000; charney, 2006; barredo, 2009; schiermeier, 2011; grinsted, moore & jevrejeva, 2012 ), it is of great importance to determine at regional and local levels to what extent the current context is part of the "average" or if, on the contrary, we are witnessing a new scenario where societies and ecosystems have not been able to adapt because of the speed and magnitude of it. however, the limited extent of instrumental climate records prevents us from assessing this issue adequately. To avoid this situation, it is necessary to turn to the reconstructions through paleoclimatic techniques, employed in inferring the bias and magnitude of climate elements by means of climatic data or proxy data. In this thesis, are used for this purpose historical techniques, based on the potential that has documentary information to reconstruct the climate. in this thesis, historical techniques are used for that purpose, based on the potential that documentary information has to reconstruct the climate. On the other hand, these techniques allow us to recognize how the weather was perceived and how it affected the people. So, in that way, we can analyse the vulnerability of the people, which depends on both, an environmental trigger and, especially, on the poor preparation of societies, who, for various reasons, cannot adapt successfully to the environment in which they develop (berkes and folke, 1998; adger, 2006). In this sense, the different territories, united by cultural ties, show analogies in their response to environmental conditions, especially in areas of similar climate. for all these reasons, we have chosen segura basin, in spain, and mendoza river basin, in argentina so as to carry out a climate reconstruction and analysis of vulnerability from the year 1600 to 2010. Those two places have a common history under the rule of the spanish crown and they have arid and semi-arid climate. In this thesis we establish a common methodology, which can be employed in a significant portion of the more than 20 million km2 which that historic region occupies, passing through the iberian peninsula and most of the american macro-continent. the climate reconstruction has meant a historic multiproxy study by the fact of using various methods, among which we highlight the use of pro-pluvia and pro-serenitate prayers, prices of grains (wheat, barley and maize), flood series, a new method (pocm, percentage oportunity cost method) based on the amount of paper that certain issues related to climate occupy and, essentially, content analysis, which stands as the most appropriate method to reconstruct the climate under a common method in the former spanish empire territories. at the same time, we have created two indices of climatic adversity, one at segura basin and another in mendoza river, which give an account of especially critical periods for society because of an environmental trigger. At the same time, a new technique (global vulnerability and ecosocial contextualization experimental glogal index, gvecegi) has been carried out to make it possible to analyze and assess the vulnerability, adaptation and socio-political context of floods and droughts in the areas under study and which is likely to be applied regardless of its location, especially if the sources in which it is based are journalistic. all this has made possible to corroborate that, both at the segura basin and at mendoza river, the climatic anomaly that began in the second half of last century is unprecedented, at least since 1600. This is so because the recurrence of warm and very warm years is much higher today. However, rainfall show a different pattern because as they increase significantly in mendoza (fostering greater recurrence of intense storm events), they are limited at segura basin. This leaves a difficult scenario for optimal water supply and for flood defense in places which already undergo heavy stress in this regard. the situation is much more disturbing if we take into account that in the last four centuries the overall vulnerability has not gone down as the available means should have allowed and both places show recurring problems that have not been solved. in the case of mendoza, more than four hundred of years later, the poor quality of irrigation and defense infrastructure are still a risk factor, and at the same time urban settlement is taking place in highly exposed areas. However, in murcia the unbridled growth of the built area without proper planning give rise to new places at risk. In addition, there is a progressive politicization of the problems caused by the lack of water, which through the political control of the media causes an increase of political vulnerability, social conflicts and territorial tensions.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Datos acad\u00e9micos de la tesis doctoral \u00abReconstrucci\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica hist\u00f3rica y an\u00e1lisis evolutivo de la vulnerabilidad y adaptaci\u00f3n a las sequ\u00edas e inundaciones en la cuenca del segura (espa\u00f1a) y en la cuenca del r\u00edo mendoza (argentina)<\/strong>\u00ab<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • T\u00edtulo de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Reconstrucci\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica hist\u00f3rica y an\u00e1lisis evolutivo de la vulnerabilidad y adaptaci\u00f3n a las sequ\u00edas e inundaciones en la cuenca del segura (espa\u00f1a) y en la cuenca del r\u00edo mendoza (argentina) <\/li>\n
  • Autor:<\/strong>\u00a0 Salvador Gil Guirado <\/li>\n
  • Universidad:<\/strong>\u00a0 Murcia<\/li>\n
  • Fecha de lectura de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 15\/11\/2013<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Direcci\u00f3n y tribunal<\/h3>\n
      \n
    • Director de la tesis<\/strong>\n
        \n
      • Mar\u00eda Del Rosario Prieto<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
      • Tribunal<\/strong>\n
          \n
        • Presidente del tribunal: Francisco Calvo Garc\u00eda-tornel <\/li>\n
        • Mar\u00eda no Barriendos vallve (vocal)<\/li>\n
        • ricardo Francisco Garc\u00eda herrera (vocal)<\/li>\n
        • Jorge Olcina cantos (vocal)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

           <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Tesis doctoral de Salvador Gil Guirado En un escenario ambiental y clim\u00e1tico cambiante (jones, osborn, & briffa, 2001; bradley & […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[20341,1399,16127,8235,4328],"tags":[8390,67710,227500,99641,190588,227499],"class_list":["post-114863","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cambio-climatico","category-geografia","category-geografia-historica","category-murcia","category-paleoclimatologia","tag-francisco-calvo-garcia-tornel","tag-jorge-olcina-cantos","tag-maria-del-rosario-prieto","tag-maria-no-barriendos-vallve","tag-ricardo-francisco-garcia-herrera","tag-salvador-gil-guirado"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114863","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114863"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114863\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}