{"id":140460,"date":"2026-01-12T17:54:49","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T17:54:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/sin-categoria\/prediccion-a-corto-y-medio-plazo-de-los-precios-de-los-cereales-en-espana\/"},"modified":"2026-01-12T17:54:49","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T17:54:49","slug":"prediccion-a-corto-y-medio-plazo-de-los-precios-de-los-cereales-en-espana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/ciencias-economicas\/prediccion-a-corto-y-medio-plazo-de-los-precios-de-los-cereales-en-espana\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediccion a corto y medio plazo de los precios de los cereales en espa\u00f1a"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Tesis doctoral de <strong> Jos\u00e9 Mar\u00eda Gil Roig <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>El sector cerealista espa\u00f1ol ha pasado de una situacion intervencionista a un comercio liberalizado tras la entrada en las comunidades europeas (ce), lo que ha aumentado considerablemente la incertidumbre de los productores sobre cual debe ser su estrategia de comercializacion. El objetivo de la presente tesis se centra en el dise\u00f1o de una metodolog\u00eda que permita anticipar el comportamiento de los precios a lo largo de la campa\u00f1a con el fin de que los productores adopten decisiones optimas en la comercializacion de los cereales (trigo, cebada y maiz).  en el estudio se han considerado los precios mensuales de los tres cereales mencionados anteriormente, asi como el de la mandioca (principal sustitutivo). Tres metodos alternativos se han utilizado para la generacion de predicciones a corto y medio plazo (1 y 3 periodos, respectivamente): arima con analisis de intervencion, vectores autorregresivos (no restringidos, restringidos y bayesianos) y predicciones de expertos.  los resultados obtenidos por los diferentes metodos se han combinado entre si, con el fin de incorporar la informacion independiente contenida en cada metodo.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Datos acad\u00e9micos de la tesis doctoral \u00ab<strong>Prediccion a corto y medio plazo de los precios de los cereales en espa\u00f1a<\/strong>\u00ab<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00edtulo de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Prediccion a corto y medio plazo de los precios de los cereales en espa\u00f1a <\/li>\n<li><strong>Autor:<\/strong>\u00a0 Jos\u00e9 Mar\u00eda Gil Roig <\/li>\n<li><strong>Universidad:<\/strong>\u00a0 Zaragoza<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fecha de lectura de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 01\/01\/1992<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Direcci\u00f3n y tribunal<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Director de la tesis<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Luis Miguel Albisu Aguado<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tribunal<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Presidente del tribunal: Marcos Sanso Frago <\/li>\n<li>Philip Garcia (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>Ezequiel Uriel (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>Javier Calatrava (vocal)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tesis doctoral de Jos\u00e9 Mar\u00eda Gil Roig El sector cerealista espa\u00f1ol ha pasado de una situacion intervencionista a un comercio [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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