{"id":19575,"date":"2018-03-09T09:08:35","date_gmt":"2018-03-09T09:08:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/sin-categoria\/modelo-estocastico-de-redes-neuronales-para-la-sa%c2%adntesis-de-caudales-aplicados-a-la-gestion-probabila%c2%adstica-de-sequa%c2%adas\/"},"modified":"2018-03-09T09:08:35","modified_gmt":"2018-03-09T09:08:35","slug":"modelo-estocastico-de-redes-neuronales-para-la-sa%c2%adntesis-de-caudales-aplicados-a-la-gestion-probabila%c2%adstica-de-sequa%c2%adas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/politecnica-de-valencia\/modelo-estocastico-de-redes-neuronales-para-la-sa%c2%adntesis-de-caudales-aplicados-a-la-gestion-probabila%c2%adstica-de-sequa%c2%adas\/","title":{"rendered":"Modelo estoc\u00e1stico de redes neuronales para la s\u00edntesis de caudales aplicados a la gesti\u00f3n probabil\u00edstica de sequ\u00edas"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Tesis doctoral de <strong>  Ochoa Rivera Juan  Camilo <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Ante la acelerada disminuci\u00f3n per c\u00e1pita del recurso h\u00eddrico a nivel global y el consecuente crecimiento de la vulnerabilidad del abastecimiento alimentario de la poblaci\u00f3n mundial, la teor\u00eda del desarrollo sostenible ha empezado a calar m\u00e1s hondamente en algunos estamentos responsables de la explotaci\u00f3n de los sistemas de recursos h\u00eddricos. \u00e9stos, seg\u00fan dicha teor\u00eda, deben tratarse dentro de una perspectiva a largo plazo, en la que se involucren de forma arm\u00f3nica el factor humano y medioambiental, realizando la toma de decisiones en condiciones de incertidumbre. En tal sentido, y al ser la escasez de agua la principal preocupaci\u00f3n, un esquema id\u00f3neo para el an\u00e1lisis del comportamiento del sistema, consiste en la consideraci\u00f3n de m\u00faltiples escenarios hidrol\u00f3gicos frutos. Con \u00e9stos se busca prever las posiblies sequ\u00edas, y poder as\u00ed adoptar de forma anticipada medidas tendientes a mitigar sus efectos.  el enfoque probabil\u00edstico se enmarca dentro de esa filosof\u00eda de trabajo, ya que permite efectuar la simulaci\u00f3n de la gesti\u00f3n de un sistema de recursos hidr\u00edcos para m\u00faltiples series sint\u00e9ticas de caudal, con el fin de estimar los probables estados futuros del sistema. La hidrolog\u00eda operacional dispone de varios modelos estoc\u00e1sticos, con los que se pueden obtener series futuras de caudales equiprobables a las hist\u00f3ricas. No obstante, dentro de esos modelos de generaci\u00f3n de series, los de mayor uso tienden a no reproducir de forma satisfactoria las caracter\u00edsticas de las sequ\u00edas hist\u00f3ricas, entre otras propiedades. Ello conduce a una subestimaci\u00f3n de los probables d\u00e9ficits h\u00eddricos futuros del sistema de recursos, con las consecuentes p\u00e9rdidas econ\u00f3micas que esto implica.  por tal motivo, en esta tesis se busc\u00f3 elaborar una metodolog\u00eda para generar series sint\u00e9ticas, en las que se reprodujeran los estad\u00edsticos de las seires hist\u00f3ricas &#8211;especialmente los de sequ\u00eda&#8211; con una mejor calidad que la que<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Datos acad\u00e9micos de la tesis doctoral \u00ab<strong>Modelo estoc\u00e1stico de redes neuronales para la s\u00edntesis de caudales aplicados a la gesti\u00f3n probabil\u00edstica de sequ\u00edas<\/strong>\u00ab<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00edtulo de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Modelo estoc\u00e1stico de redes neuronales para la s\u00edntesis de caudales aplicados a la gesti\u00f3n probabil\u00edstica de sequ\u00edas <\/li>\n<li><strong>Autor:<\/strong>\u00a0  Ochoa Rivera Juan  Camilo <\/li>\n<li><strong>Universidad:<\/strong>\u00a0 Polit\u00e9cnica de Valencia<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fecha de lectura de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 22\/10\/2002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Direcci\u00f3n y tribunal<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Director de la tesis<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Joaquin Andreu \u00e1lvarez<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tribunal<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Presidente del tribunal:  Marco segura Juan  bautista <\/li>\n<li>Luis Garrote de marcos (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>mary White susan (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>Jos\u00e9 esteban Capilla roma (vocal)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tesis doctoral de Ochoa Rivera Juan Camilo Ante la acelerada disminuci\u00f3n per c\u00e1pita del recurso h\u00eddrico a nivel global y [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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