{"id":25375,"date":"2018-03-09T09:16:44","date_gmt":"2018-03-09T09:16:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/sin-categoria\/modelos-para-la-precipitacion-diaria-en-el-marco-de-los-modelos-lineales-generalizados\/"},"modified":"2018-03-09T09:16:44","modified_gmt":"2018-03-09T09:16:44","slug":"modelos-para-la-precipitacion-diaria-en-el-marco-de-los-modelos-lineales-generalizados","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/zaragoza\/modelos-para-la-precipitacion-diaria-en-el-marco-de-los-modelos-lineales-generalizados\/","title":{"rendered":"Modelos para la precipitaci\u00f3n diaria en el marco de los modelos lineales generalizados"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Tesis doctoral de <strong> Jes\u00fas Asin Lafuente <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>En la memoria se desarrollan modelos estad\u00edsticos que permiten caracterizar, en un grado adecuado, el comportamiento de la precipitaci\u00f3n diaria en un observatorio. La modelizaci\u00f3n elegida representa el proceso de lluvia mediante dos componentes, la ocurrencia de precipitaci\u00f3n, representada por una variable binaria, y la cantidad medida en los d\u00edas lluviosos, cada una de las cuales requiere construir un submodelo. En ambos casos, la distribuci\u00f3n de la variable de inter\u00e9s no es gaussiana y su valor esperado depende de covariables atmosf\u00e9ricas; por esto, el marco de los modelos lineales generalizados (glm) y sus extensiones que permiten considerar la dependencia entre respuesta sucesivas, resulta un esquema de modelizaci\u00f3n adecuado.  en el cap\u00edtulo 1 se hace una revisi\u00f3n bibliogr\u00e1fica de los modelos de precipitaci\u00f3n y una presentaci\u00f3n de la familia de modelos a utilizar. El cap\u00edtulo 2 de la memoria se dedica al an\u00e1lisis de las herramientas de cr\u00edtica de los modelos y a hacer una propuesta de valoraci\u00f3n de los mismos. Se propone una metodolog\u00eda que tiene en cuenta, adem\u00e1s de las medidas habituales, la capacidad de los modelos para clasificar correctamente las observaciones, reproducir el ciclo estacional, la evoluci\u00f3n interanual de la lluvia o la distribuci\u00f3n de la longitud de las rachas seca y h\u00fameda.  el cap\u00edtulo 3 se dedica a la construcci\u00f3n de modelos y al an\u00e1lisis de su capacidad para ajustar las series de precipitaci\u00f3n de cuatro observatorios de la cuenca del ebro con diferentes caracter\u00edsticas clim\u00e1ticas e informaci\u00f3n atmosf\u00e9rica dispar.  los modelos de ocurrencia considerados son cadenas de markov cuyas probabilidades de transici\u00f3n se estiman mediante regresi\u00f3n log\u00edstica. La estrategia de construcci\u00f3n estudia, en pasos sucesivos, la significaci\u00f3n de diferentes convariables: indicadores de ocurrencia en los d\u00edas previos, arm\u00f3nicos para representar el ciclo anual y covariables clim\u00e1tica. Se obtien<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Datos acad\u00e9micos de la tesis doctoral \u00ab<strong>Modelos para la precipitaci\u00f3n diaria en el marco de los modelos lineales generalizados<\/strong>\u00ab<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00edtulo de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Modelos para la precipitaci\u00f3n diaria en el marco de los modelos lineales generalizados <\/li>\n<li><strong>Autor:<\/strong>\u00a0 Jes\u00fas Asin Lafuente <\/li>\n<li><strong>Universidad:<\/strong>\u00a0 Zaragoza<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fecha de lectura de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 15\/09\/2003<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Direcci\u00f3n y tribunal<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Director de la tesis<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Jes\u00fas Abaurrea Leon<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tribunal<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Presidente del tribunal: Miguel San Miguel marco <\/li>\n<li>Juan Ferr\u00e1ndiz ferragud (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>sergio Alonzo oroza (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>Javier Martin vide (vocal)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tesis doctoral de Jes\u00fas Asin Lafuente En la memoria se desarrollan modelos estad\u00edsticos que permiten caracterizar, en un grado adecuado, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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