{"id":30441,"date":"2004-01-06T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2004-01-06T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/sin-categoria\/three-essays-on-cyclical-analysis\/"},"modified":"2004-01-06T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2004-01-06T00:00:00","slug":"three-essays-on-cyclical-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/alcala\/three-essays-on-cyclical-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Three essays on cyclical analysis."},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Tesis doctoral de <strong> Pilar Bengoechea Pere <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Las fluctuaciones econ\u00f3micas han sido reconocidas desde antiguo y el inter\u00e9s de los economistas en analizarlas y predecirlas aumenta despu\u00e9s de una recesi\u00f3n. Tal fue el caso de la grave recesi\u00f3n de los a\u00f1os treinta y, m\u00e1s recientemente, de la recesi\u00f3n de la d\u00e9cada de los noventa que, una vez m\u00e1s, sorprendi\u00f3 a los analistas de la coyuntura por su duraci\u00f3n y amplitud. puesto que las recesiones econ\u00f3micas no son deseables por sus efectos econ\u00f3micos y sociales, su estudio sigue siendo uno de los objetivos m\u00e1s importantes para la investigaci\u00f3n y el dise\u00f1o de las pol\u00edticas econ\u00f3micas.  entre la variedad de cuestiones que han sido tratadas en este contexto, dos de ellas han suscitado mayor inter\u00e9s. La primera hace referencia a la identificaci\u00f3n y fechado de las recesiones  y la segunda, a la predicci\u00f3n de las mismas en tiempo real.  esta tesis se centra en la identificaci\u00f3n, medici\u00f3n y predicci\u00f3n de las fluctuaciones c\u00edclicas de la econom\u00eda de espa\u00f1ola y de la zona euro, aplicando las siguientes metodolog\u00edas: i) la metodolog\u00eda tradicional del nacional bureau of economic research (nber) de an\u00e1lisis c\u00edclico; ii) los modelos de reg\u00edmenes de cambio, en particular, el modelo markov-switching  propuesto por hamilton (1989) y m\u00e9todos no param\u00e9tricos para la estimaci\u00f3n del ciclo. adem\u00e1s, se propone una nueva metodolog\u00eda para la identificaci\u00f3n y predicci\u00f3n de las recesiones, haciendo una aplicaci\u00f3n a la econom\u00eda de la zona euro.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Datos acad\u00e9micos de la tesis doctoral \u00ab<strong>Three essays on cyclical analysis.<\/strong>\u00ab<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00edtulo de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Three essays on cyclical analysis. <\/li>\n<li><strong>Autor:<\/strong>\u00a0 Pilar Bengoechea Pere <\/li>\n<li><strong>Universidad:<\/strong>\u00a0 Alcal\u00e1<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fecha de lectura de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 01\/06\/2004<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Direcci\u00f3n y tribunal<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Director de la tesis<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Gabriel Perez Quiros<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tribunal<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Presidente del tribunal: Jos\u00e9 Luis Raymond bara <\/li>\n<li>Carlos Martinez mongay (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>maximo Camacho alonso (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>eva Sendra diaz (vocal)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tesis doctoral de Pilar Bengoechea Pere Las fluctuaciones econ\u00f3micas han sido reconocidas desde antiguo y el inter\u00e9s de los economistas [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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