{"id":3058,"date":"1994-01-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"1994-01-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/1994\/01\/01\/predicciones-bayesianas-de-probabilidad-en-presencia-de-umbrales-en-un-modelo-lineal-una-aplicacion-a-la-prediccion-del-gasto-turistico\/"},"modified":"1994-01-01T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"1994-01-01T00:00:00","slug":"predicciones-bayesianas-de-probabilidad-en-presencia-de-umbrales-en-un-modelo-lineal-una-aplicacion-a-la-prediccion-del-gasto-turistico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/ciencias-economicas\/predicciones-bayesianas-de-probabilidad-en-presencia-de-umbrales-en-un-modelo-lineal-una-aplicacion-a-la-prediccion-del-gasto-turistico\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicciones bayesianas de probabilidad en presencia de umbrales, en un modelo lineal. una aplicacion a la prediccion del gasto turistico."},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Tesis doctoral de <strong>  Sanz Gomez Jos\u00e9 Antonio <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Se plantea obtener la prediccion de la probabilidad de superacion de un umbral fijado de antemano, por la variable endogena de un modelo lineal clasico, supuesto un comportamiento aleatorio para el vector de parametros.  se utilizan tecnicas bayesianas y se obtiene una prediccion de la probabilidad, identificando el predictor resultante que resulta ser una combinacion lineal convexa del umbral y del predictor resultante que resulta ser una combinacion lineal convexa del umbral y del predictor obtenido con tecnicas minimo cuadraticas. Se analizan y estudian diversas propiedades estadisticas de dicho predictor (consistencia, suficiencia, sesgo y error cuadratico medio), asi como su comparacion y diferencia con el minimo cuadratico.  finalmente, se aplican los resultados obtenidos a la prediccion de que el gasto efectuado por los turistas que visitaron las islas baleares rebase un umbral (el gasto medio, un percentil o un gasto deseable), obteniendose predicciones de la probabilidad de este hecho para unos ciertos grupos de turistas.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Datos acad\u00e9micos de la tesis doctoral \u00ab<strong>Predicciones bayesianas de probabilidad en presencia de umbrales, en un modelo lineal. una aplicacion a la prediccion del gasto turistico.<\/strong>\u00ab<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00edtulo de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Predicciones bayesianas de probabilidad en presencia de umbrales, en un modelo lineal. una aplicacion a la prediccion del gasto turistico. <\/li>\n<li><strong>Autor:<\/strong>\u00a0  Sanz Gomez Jos\u00e9 Antonio <\/li>\n<li><strong>Universidad:<\/strong>\u00a0 Valladolid<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fecha de lectura de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 01\/01\/1994<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Direcci\u00f3n y tribunal<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Director de la tesis<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li> Rojo Garcia Jos\u00e9 Luis<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tribunal<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Presidente del tribunal: Miguel Martin Diaz <\/li>\n<li>Jes\u00fas Basulto Santos (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>Pilar Martin-guzman Conejo (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>Guillermina Mart\u00edn Reyes (vocal)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tesis doctoral de Sanz Gomez Jos\u00e9 Antonio Se plantea obtener la prediccion de la probabilidad de superacion de un umbral [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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