{"id":70006,"date":"2018-03-09T23:14:29","date_gmt":"2018-03-09T23:14:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/sin-categoria\/analisis-estimacion-y-cartografa%c2%ada-del-riesgo-humano-de-incendios-forestales\/"},"modified":"2018-03-09T23:14:29","modified_gmt":"2018-03-09T23:14:29","slug":"analisis-estimacion-y-cartografa%c2%ada-del-riesgo-humano-de-incendios-forestales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/alcala\/analisis-estimacion-y-cartografa%c2%ada-del-riesgo-humano-de-incendios-forestales\/","title":{"rendered":"An\u00e1lisis, estimaci\u00f3n y cartograf\u00edadel riesgo humano de incendios forestales."},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Tesis doctoral de <strong> Jes\u00fas Mart\u00ednez Fern\u00e1ndez <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Seg\u00fan revelan las estad\u00edsticas m\u00e1s recientes de causalidad de incendios forestales, m\u00e1s del 90% de los incendios forestales en espa\u00f1a, se debieron directa o indirectamente a la acci\u00f3n del hombre lo que pone de manifiesto la estrecha relaci\u00f3n existente entre incendios forestales y actividades humanas en nuestro pa\u00eds. Este hecho contrasta con la escasa importancia concedida a los factores humanos frente a los f\u00edsicos (topograf\u00eda, combustibles y meteorolog\u00eda) en los an\u00e1lisis e \u00edndices cuantitativos del riesgo de incendios. esto se debe entre otras razones a escasa disponibilidad de datos diarios para evaluarlos y a la falta de patrones espaciales claros en algunas actitudes y comportamientos relacionados principalmente con los incendios intencionados.  a pesar de las dificultades, en esta investigaci\u00f3n se pretende estimar y analizar el riesgo humano de ignici\u00f3n con un enfoque a largo plazo (riesgo de tipo estructural) utilizando variables que sean f\u00e1cilmente espacializables, de tipo estad\u00edstico y cartogr\u00e1fico, que tratan de cuantificar m\u00e1s o menos indirectamente la presencia, el tipo y nivel de actividad humana en relaci\u00f3n con el monte y las estructuras territoriales y socioecon\u00f3micas que pueden favorecer esa presencia y actividad.  a lo largo del trabajo se definen los factores de riesgo humano y se identifican estad\u00edsticamente las variables espaciales que parecen ser m\u00e1s significativas y que pueden ser utilizadas para predecir y explicar el riesgo humano de ignici\u00f3n en espa\u00f1a. Se obtienen varios modelos de riesgo utilizando regresi\u00f3n log\u00edstica binaria, los cuales predicen apropiadamente la probabilidad de que cada unidad espacial (municipio) tenga una alta o baja ocurrencia de incendios de origen humano. Estos modelos se plasman en mapas de riesgo expresados en una escala probabil\u00edstica. Se obtuvo un modelo de riesgo global, para el territorio nacional, y 20 modelos regionales y tem\u00e1ticos con la intenci\u00f3n de e<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Datos acad\u00e9micos de la tesis doctoral \u00ab<strong>An\u00e1lisis, estimaci\u00f3n y cartograf\u00edadel riesgo humano de incendios forestales.<\/strong>\u00ab<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00edtulo de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 An\u00e1lisis, estimaci\u00f3n y cartograf\u00edadel riesgo humano de incendios forestales. <\/li>\n<li><strong>Autor:<\/strong>\u00a0 Jes\u00fas Mart\u00ednez Fern\u00e1ndez <\/li>\n<li><strong>Universidad:<\/strong>\u00a0 Alcal\u00e1<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fecha de lectura de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 15\/09\/2004<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Direcci\u00f3n y tribunal<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Director de la tesis<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Emilio Chuvieco Salinero<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tribunal<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Presidente del tribunal: ricardo V\u00e9lez mu\u00f1oz <\/li>\n<li>Juan De la riva fern\u00e1ndez (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>vittorio Leone (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>cristina Montiel molina (vocal)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tesis doctoral de Jes\u00fas Mart\u00ednez Fern\u00e1ndez Seg\u00fan revelan las estad\u00edsticas m\u00e1s recientes de causalidad de incendios forestales, m\u00e1s del 90% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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