{"id":74661,"date":"2018-03-09T23:19:45","date_gmt":"2018-03-09T23:19:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/sin-categoria\/analisis-y-prediccion-de-series-temporales-de-consumo-electrico-mensual-a-traves-de-sus-componentes-periodicas\/"},"modified":"2018-03-09T23:19:45","modified_gmt":"2018-03-09T23:19:45","slug":"analisis-y-prediccion-de-series-temporales-de-consumo-electrico-mensual-a-traves-de-sus-componentes-periodicas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/extremadura\/analisis-y-prediccion-de-series-temporales-de-consumo-electrico-mensual-a-traves-de-sus-componentes-periodicas\/","title":{"rendered":"An\u00e1lisis y predicci\u00f3n de series temporales de consumo el\u00e9ctrico mensual a trav\u00e9s de sus componentes peri\u00f3dicas"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Tesis doctoral de <strong> Eva Gonz\u00e1lez Romera <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>En esta tesis se presentan varios modelos de predicci\u00f3n de una serie temporal de consumo mensual de energ\u00eda el\u00e9ctrica. En primer lugar se realiza un estudio comparativo de t\u00e9cnicas de suavizaci\u00f3n de series temporales con el fin de extraer la tendencia de la serie. Se predice a continuaci\u00f3n la serie de tendencia resultante mediante una red neuronal optimizada para ello.     en una segunda fase se proponen tres estrategias para la predicci\u00f3n de las fluctuaciones que presenta la serie sobre la tendencia: la primera de ellas consiste en una red neuronal, la segunda se basa en el ajuste a una serie de fourier y la tercera corresponden a un banco de filtros digitales asociados con redes neuronales que realizan un filtrado sin retardo dela serie y predicen valores futuros de la misma. Se realiza un estudio comparativo de las tres estrategias y se extraen conclusiones acerca de las ventajas e inconvenientes de cada una de ellas.     los resultados de precisi\u00f3n obtenidos en la predicci\u00f3n de las serie mediante las t\u00e9cnicas propuestas mejoran los publicados en los trabajos anteriores consultados, presentando la ventaja adicional de no necesitar variables distintas del consumo el\u00e9ctrico para realizar la predicci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Datos acad\u00e9micos de la tesis doctoral \u00ab<strong>An\u00e1lisis y predicci\u00f3n de series temporales de consumo el\u00e9ctrico mensual a trav\u00e9s de sus componentes peri\u00f3dicas<\/strong>\u00ab<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00edtulo de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 An\u00e1lisis y predicci\u00f3n de series temporales de consumo el\u00e9ctrico mensual a trav\u00e9s de sus componentes peri\u00f3dicas <\/li>\n<li><strong>Autor:<\/strong>\u00a0 Eva Gonz\u00e1lez Romera <\/li>\n<li><strong>Universidad:<\/strong>\u00a0 Extremadura<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fecha de lectura de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 17\/06\/2005<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Direcci\u00f3n y tribunal<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Director de la tesis<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Miguel \u00e1ngel Jaramillo Mor\u00e1n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tribunal<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Presidente del tribunal: Francisco javier L\u00f3pez aligu\u00e9 <\/li>\n<li> R\u00edos g\u00f3mez Francisco Javier (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>Jos\u00e9 Carpio iba\u00f1ez (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>Jos\u00e9 Ga\u00f1\u00e1n g\u00f3mez (vocal)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tesis doctoral de Eva Gonz\u00e1lez Romera En esta tesis se presentan varios modelos de predicci\u00f3n de una serie temporal de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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