{"id":75169,"date":"2018-03-09T23:20:18","date_gmt":"2018-03-09T23:20:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/sin-categoria\/inferencia-de-modelos-fa%c2%adsicos-probabilistas-utilizando-entropa%c2%ada-aplicada-al-analisis-de-variabilidad-de-la-recurrencia-y-a-la-modelizacion-regional-de-fenomenos-extremos\/"},"modified":"2018-03-09T23:20:18","modified_gmt":"2018-03-09T23:20:18","slug":"inferencia-de-modelos-fa%c2%adsicos-probabilistas-utilizando-entropa%c2%ada-aplicada-al-analisis-de-variabilidad-de-la-recurrencia-y-a-la-modelizacion-regional-de-fenomenos-extremos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/ciencias-de-la-tierra-y-del-espacio\/inferencia-de-modelos-fa%c2%adsicos-probabilistas-utilizando-entropa%c2%ada-aplicada-al-analisis-de-variabilidad-de-la-recurrencia-y-a-la-modelizacion-regional-de-fenomenos-extremos\/","title":{"rendered":"Inferencia de modelos f\u00edsicos probabilistas utilizando entrop\u00eda, aplicada al an\u00e1lisis de variabilidad de la recurrencia y a la modelizaci\u00f3n regional de fen\u00f3menos extremos."},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Tesis doctoral de <strong> Alberto Solana Ortega <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Se examina la situaci\u00f3n actual de los estudios sobre riesgos asociados a fon\u00f3menos extremos, destac\u00e1ndose los impedimentos que limitan a las t\u00e9cnicas estad\u00edsticas  que se utilizan habitualmente para su modelizaci\u00f3n.Se presenta un nuevo marco general de an\u00e1lisis basado en la probabilidad l\u00f3gica, en el cual se construyen lenguajes de l\u00f3gica plausible con datos observacionales , adecudos para representar la singularidad que constituyen los elmentos factuales de evidencia.A partir de requisitos de racionalidad y moralidad se deriva el procedimiento de inferencia entr\u00f3pica ref, caracterizado por la doble extremizaci\u00f3n de la entrop\u00eda relativa sujeta a ligaduras fractiles de equiprobabilidad ancladas en los datos.Apoyadas en el uso de este procedimiento se proponen sendas metodolog\u00edas para el an\u00e1lisis de variabilidad de la recurrencia y la regionalizaci\u00f3n de sucesos extremos , las cuales exigen previamente la soluci\u00f3n de dos problemas-tipo: el problema de la inferencia escalar condicionada dependencias funcionales.Por \u00faltimo, con el fin de ilustrar estas metodolog\u00edas se incluyen varios ejemplos de aplicaci\u00f3n , concretamente el estudioo  probabilista de la variabilidad de la recurrencia de las inundaciones hist\u00f3ricas del r\u00edo guadelquivir en and\u00fajar , la modelizaci\u00f3n probabilista de la accidentalidad de petroleros causantes de grandes vertidos y mareas negras en la costa de galicia y el an\u00e1lisis regional de las avenidas m\u00e1ximas anuales de un conjunto de r\u00edos sin regular del norte de espa\u00f1a.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Datos acad\u00e9micos de la tesis doctoral \u00ab<strong>Inferencia de modelos f\u00edsicos probabilistas utilizando entrop\u00eda, aplicada al an\u00e1lisis de variabilidad de la recurrencia y a la modelizaci\u00f3n regional de fen\u00f3menos extremos.<\/strong>\u00ab<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00edtulo de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Inferencia de modelos f\u00edsicos probabilistas utilizando entrop\u00eda, aplicada al an\u00e1lisis de variabilidad de la recurrencia y a la modelizaci\u00f3n regional de fen\u00f3menos extremos. <\/li>\n<li><strong>Autor:<\/strong>\u00a0 Alberto Solana Ortega <\/li>\n<li><strong>Universidad:<\/strong>\u00a0 Complutense de Madrid<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fecha de lectura de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 29\/06\/2005<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Direcci\u00f3n y tribunal<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Director de la tesis<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Vicente Solana G\u00f3mez<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tribunal<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Presidente del tribunal:  Fern\u00e1ndez ra\u00f1ada y menendez de luarca Antonio <\/li>\n<li>sergio Alonso orozco (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>elvira Zurita garcia (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>Jorge Olcina cantos (vocal)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tesis doctoral de Alberto Solana Ortega Se examina la situaci\u00f3n actual de los estudios sobre riesgos asociados a fon\u00f3menos extremos, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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