{"id":77416,"date":"2018-03-09T23:22:57","date_gmt":"2018-03-09T23:22:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/sin-categoria\/predecibilidad-de-la-temperatura-en-la-peninsula-iberica-mediante-modelos-de-circulacion-global-y-tecnicas-de-regionalizacion-estadistica\/"},"modified":"2018-03-09T23:22:57","modified_gmt":"2018-03-09T23:22:57","slug":"predecibilidad-de-la-temperatura-en-la-peninsula-iberica-mediante-modelos-de-circulacion-global-y-tecnicas-de-regionalizacion-estadistica","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/climatologia-regional\/predecibilidad-de-la-temperatura-en-la-peninsula-iberica-mediante-modelos-de-circulacion-global-y-tecnicas-de-regionalizacion-estadistica\/","title":{"rendered":"Predecibilidad de la temperatura en la peninsula iberica mediante modelos de circulacion global y tecnicas de regionalizacion estadistica"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Tesis doctoral de <strong> M\u00aa Dolores Frias Dominguez <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>El objetivo principal de esta tesis es analizar la posibilidad de desarrollar un sistema de predicci\u00f3n operacional de la temperatura m\u00e1xima y m\u00ednima sobre la pen\u00ednsula ib\u00e9rica en base a los resultados procedentes del proyecto demeter. El estudio se centra en la valoraci\u00f3n de la predictibilidad mensual\/estacional de la temperatura m\u00e1xima y m\u00ednima sobre la pen\u00ednsula ib\u00e9rica mediante la combinaci\u00f3n de sistemas de predicci\u00f3n multimodelo por conjuntos y t\u00e9cnicas de regionalizaci\u00f3n estad\u00edsticas o downscaling. Dicha predictibilidad se cuantifica aplicando modelos de regionalizaci\u00f3n en modo hindcast considerando la presi\u00f3n a nivel del mar sobre la zona del norte del atl\u00e1ntico como predictor. la comparaci\u00f3n de las observaciones con las estimaciones de la media mensual de la temperatura m\u00e1xima y m\u00ednima empleando estas t\u00e9cnicas de regionalizaci\u00f3n proporciona una medida de la predictibilidad en esta regi\u00f3n. Los resultados son evaluados de manera determinista principalmente en t\u00e9rminos de correlaci\u00f3n y fracci\u00f3n de varianza. Otros estad\u00edsticos probabilistas, como el brier skill score o el ranked probability skill score, son tambi\u00e9n aplicados a los valores estimados a partir de los m\u00e9todos de regionalizaci\u00f3n con el fin de analizar la informaci\u00f3n desde un punto de vista probabilista. Este aspecto nos permite valorar la calidad de las predicciones y comparar la superioridad del sistema de predicci\u00f3n multimodelo por conjuntos frente a considerar modelos individualmente. Tambi\u00e9n se analizar explicitamente las ventajas de usar los modelos de regionalizaci\u00f3n mediante la comparaci\u00f3n de los valores estimados de temperatura m\u00e1xima y m\u00ednima respecto a los valores de esas variables resultantes de la salida directa de los modelos de circulaci\u00f3n general.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Datos acad\u00e9micos de la tesis doctoral \u00ab<strong>Predecibilidad de la temperatura en la peninsula iberica mediante modelos de circulacion global y tecnicas de regionalizacion estadistica<\/strong>\u00ab<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00edtulo de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Predecibilidad de la temperatura en la peninsula iberica mediante modelos de circulacion global y tecnicas de regionalizacion estadistica <\/li>\n<li><strong>Autor:<\/strong>\u00a0 M\u00aa Dolores Frias Dominguez <\/li>\n<li><strong>Universidad:<\/strong>\u00a0 Salamanca<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fecha de lectura de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 26\/11\/2005<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Direcci\u00f3n y tribunal<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Director de la tesis<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Concepcion Rodriguez Puebla<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tribunal<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Presidente del tribunal: Juan Zubillaga esperanza <\/li>\n<li>eduardo Zorita calvo (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>Francisco Doblas reyes (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>david Stephenson (vocal)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tesis doctoral de M\u00aa Dolores Frias Dominguez El objetivo principal de esta tesis es analizar la posibilidad de desarrollar un [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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