{"id":88562,"date":"2018-03-10T00:13:33","date_gmt":"2018-03-10T00:13:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/sin-categoria\/desarrollo-de-una-metadologia-automatica-de-modelacion-de-series-diarias-de-actividad-economica-aplicacion-a-series-diarias-de-demanda-electrica\/"},"modified":"2018-03-10T00:13:33","modified_gmt":"2018-03-10T00:13:33","slug":"desarrollo-de-una-metadologia-automatica-de-modelacion-de-series-diarias-de-actividad-economica-aplicacion-a-series-diarias-de-demanda-electrica","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deberes.net\/tesis\/ciencias-economicas\/desarrollo-de-una-metadologia-automatica-de-modelacion-de-series-diarias-de-actividad-economica-aplicacion-a-series-diarias-de-demanda-electrica\/","title":{"rendered":"Desarrollo de una metadolog\u00eda automatica de modelacion de series diarias de actividad economica. aplicaci\u00f3n a series diarias de demanda electrica"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Tesis doctoral de <strong> Jos\u00e9 Manuel Revuelta Mediavilla <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>La tesis proporciona un nuevo marco de analisis completo de series temporales economicas de nivel de agregacion o frecuencia de muestreo diaria, facilmente generalizable a series horarias. Sobre una caracterizacion y descripcion pormenorizada de las principales caracteristicas particulares que presentan estas series y que con su tratamiento diferenciado se justifica la investigacion y desarrollo de una metodolog\u00eda general de modelizacion especifica y con un alto grado de automatizacion. Estas especificidades obligan a basar el estudio de estas series en  una familia de modelos especial que en la tesis se introducen con el nombre de modelos arimanax-ai. Se tratan de forma especifica y original todos los aspectos asociados a la identificacion, estimacion y validacion del complejo efecto calendario y de la relacion funcional dinamica y no lineal respecto a variables exogenas. Respecto a la identificacion, se dise\u00f1an estrategias que permiten una automatizacion y un planteamiento racional de un problema de muy compleja estructura parametrica. respecto a la estimacion, la estrategia que se sigue es multalgoritmica, de forma que cada paso de la metodolog\u00eda tiene su propio algoritmo, dependiente de su objetivo. En la fase de validacion es relevante el planteamiento de fases de reduccion parametrica automatica, dependientes del sector de actividad y basadas en un metodo mcp de paso multiple, jerarquizado con informacion a priori. La bondad de la metodolog\u00eda desarrollada se muestra con su aplicaci\u00f3n a series pertenecientes al sector electrico y su comparacion con otras tecnicas basadasen redes neuronales, sistemas neurodifusos y en un operador humano.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Datos acad\u00e9micos de la tesis doctoral \u00ab<strong>Desarrollo de una metadolog\u00eda automatica de modelacion de series diarias de actividad economica. aplicaci\u00f3n a series diarias de demanda electrica<\/strong>\u00ab<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00edtulo de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Desarrollo de una metadolog\u00eda automatica de modelacion de series diarias de actividad economica. aplicaci\u00f3n a series diarias de demanda electrica <\/li>\n<li><strong>Autor:<\/strong>\u00a0 Jos\u00e9 Manuel Revuelta Mediavilla <\/li>\n<li><strong>Universidad:<\/strong>\u00a0 Carlos III de Madrid<\/li>\n<li><strong>Fecha de lectura de la tesis:<\/strong>\u00a0 24\/01\/2001<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Direcci\u00f3n y tribunal<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Director de la tesis<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Antoni Espasa Terrades<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tribunal<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Presidente del tribunal: Santiago Velilla cerdan <\/li>\n<li>Jos\u00e9 ram\u00f3n Cancelo de la torre (vocal)<\/li>\n<li> Cano izquierdo Jos\u00e9 Manuel (vocal)<\/li>\n<li>graciela Gonzalez farias (vocal)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tesis doctoral de Jos\u00e9 Manuel Revuelta Mediavilla La tesis proporciona un nuevo marco de analisis completo de series temporales economicas [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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